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An invasive vector may also introduce novel pathogens event 5 to focal habitat which may F or may not G spread. It may also be possible for vectors to move pathogens from epidemic cycles to endemic ones, which would function as pathogen reservoirs for future epidemics. Acknowledgments I thank Matt Daugherty, Joao Lopes, and Sandy Purcell for helpful discus- sions, insights, and suggestions to this manuscript.

Linthicum, Ph. Britch, Ph. Tucker, Ph. Agricultural and Veterinary Entomology, S. Phone: ; Fax: ; E-mail: Kenneth. Linthicum ars. In this work we briefly address 1 the effect of ecology on vector-borne disease, 2 the role of ecology and global climate in disease forecasting, and 3 the potential use of forecasting to reduce impact and limit spread of vector-borne disease. Effect of Ecology on Vector-Borne Diseases Several examples will be used to demonstrate that we share a global envi- ronment that strongly influences vector-borne disease transmission.

First, we will describe how temperature plays a major role in the ability of Aedes aegypti to transmit dengue virus in Southeast Asia and possibly chikungunya virus in Africa. Third, we will describe how modifications to environment such as the construction of a dam and devel- opment of rice irrigation projects affect the ability of Culex species to transmit RVF in Mauritania and Senegal. During periods of elevated transmission there is a significantly increased risk of globalization of these and other arboviruses. The ability to predict periods of high risk might permit us to design better pre- vention, containment, or exclusion strategies to limit globalization of these and other pathogens.

Temperature The Ae. Dengue virus infection in humans can produce classical dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever DHF , and dengue shock syndrome DSS , and these diseases are endemic in Southeast Asia. DHF and DSS cases are reported to the Ministry of Health in Thailand by health care professionals, clinics, and hospitals; however, classic dengue fever is so common that it is not reported to the Ministry of Health.

Cases of DHF represent approxi- mately 1 percent of the total dengue infections Gubler, The spatial dis- tribution of DHF between years is highly variable and not well understood. The incidence of DHF is affected by temperature-induced variation in the vectorial capacity of mosquitoes Watts et al. Vectorial capacity is dependent upon the extrinsic incubation. Global climate is significantly affected by the variability of sea surface tem- peratures SSTs.

Due to its location, the climate in Southeast Asia is influenced by the variability in both the Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures. The impacts of the interannual variability in SSTs in these oceans is revealed in atmospheric circulation through outgoing longwave radiation OLR measurements. These satellite-derived measurements are a proxy indicator of cloudiness and hence rainfall.

When expressed as anomalies with respect to reference long-term means, negative OLR anomalies in the tropics represent regions of precipitating clouds, whereas positive OLR anomalies are associated with dry conditions. Through such measurements the impacts of such phenomena as ENSO on global cloudi- ness and rainfall patterns can be observed. Large-scale variability in the climate regime producing either floods or droughts has the effect of enhancing the emergence and propaga- tion of various disease vectors. DHF incidence data, calculated per , population, were examined for all provinces in Myanmar and Thailand and compared to OLR anomalies over those two countries, respectively.

There was a positive correlation, with a several-month lag, between OLR anomalies and reported DHF cases in and in Myanmar, and in , , , , and in Thailand. This indicates that hot and dry conditions, which characterize warm ENSO episodes in this region, preceded increased DHF occurrence Linthicum, unpublished observations. The rela- tionship between dengue incidence in Thailand and OLR anomalies is depicted in Figure Dengue incidence data were obtained from Nisalak et al. Chikungunya virus, which causes febrile illness and joint pain, is also trans- mitted by Ae.

Epidemics of chikun- gunya fever affected hundreds of thousands of people in the Indian Ocean basin from to , and the initial outbreak occurred in coastal Kenya in Chretien et al. They demonstrated, analyzing satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index NDVI data anomalies and rainfall measurements, that the chikungunya outbreak began in June following unusually dry and warm conditions, especially in May Figure Widespread water stor- age and elevated temperatures, thus increasing habitat for container-breeding Ae. Increase and peaks in dengue incidence is preceded by hot and dry periods indicated by positive OLR anomalies.

Rainfall Outbreaks of RVF are known to follow periods of widespread and heavy rainfall associated with the development of a strong intertropical convergence zone over East Africa Davies et al. Excessive rainfall is thought to precipitate RVF virus outbreaks by flood- ing mosquito breeding habitats and producing a hatch of primary RVF-vertically- infected Aedes spp. Negative NDVI and rainfall anomalies indicate unusually dry conditions.

Periods of RVF activity in Kenya are depicted by black bars. Monthly SOI values are shown as standardized deviations based on the mean. Severe hemor- rhagic disease was observed in the human population of the area, accompanied by a high incidence of abortion and disease in their livestock Ksiazek et al. More than strains of RVF virus were isolated from patients in the local hospital in Rooso, Mauritania. Unlike other sub-Saharan RVF epizootics, which occurred during periods of very heavy rainfall, this outbreak occurred during a period of only average rainfall.

Immediately prior to the outbreak, however, a series of ecological modi- fications to the Senegal River were instituted by the Mauritanian and Senegalese governments in cooperation with internationally sponsored programs. These modifications included the construction of two dams on the Senegal River one at Diama in the delta region and one 1, km up river at Manantelli in Mali.

Dams and dikes were also constructed along the river to control the natural flooding. The controlled management of the river resulted in several dramatic changes in the ecology of the river basin. Although not designed to impound water, the Diama dam caused extensive flooding and vegetation growth in Senegal and Mauritania Figure New areas of increased rice agricultural development were identified in satellite data along the river where we observed intense Culex species mosquito immature development as late as January Subsequent RVF activity in this region has tended to cluster along the Senegal River, indicating that landscape modification can contribute to ende- mism of diseases.

Important aspects of interannual variability in global weather patterns are linked to ENSO. Because of the large size of the Pacific Ocean, changes in SST patterns and gradients across the basin influence global atmospheric circulation. There is building evidence suggesting links between ENSO-driven climate anomalies and infectious disease, particularly those transmitted by arthropods, such as Murray Valley encephalitis Nicholls, , bluetongue Baylis et al.

Ocean temperatures, rainfall, and vegetation development are monitored and this information is used to produce RVF risk maps monthly. Additionally, negative OLR anomalies were observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean and East Africa indicating elevated convective activity and heavy rainfall.

The persistence of these conditions eventually produced extremes in global-scale climate anomalies similar to those observed in previous years, and RVF risk maps predicted the outbreak that occurred in December and continued until May Anyamba et al. The opposite patterns occur over Southeast Asia. Between September and November , several alerts were provided to the international public health and agricultural communities, presentations were made in scientific forums, and news media were notified.

The EMPRES program provides, at an international level, an overall initiative for coordination of the RVF-Early Warning System, where data integration and analysis are per- formed before being disseminated to recipient countries, international organiza- tions, and key stakeholders in the form of RVF bulletins and risk assessments. Regional task forces in Kenya were alerted, and field assessment was promoted in flooded areas. The U. RVF was isolated in December in conjunction with the first report of human cases. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC mobilized response teams and resources in an attempt to identify the extent of the outbreak and provide control and con- tainment operations.

The government of Kenya banned slaughter of livestock in eastern and northeastern Kenya and started a public education campaign, and various organizations became involved in distribution of mosquito nets and personal protection measures, application of insecticides to mosquito habitats, domestic animal vaccination, and other control measures. The response to the RVF outbreak was 1 to 1.

It appears likely that the early warning contributed to a reduced impact of the disease and limited its geo- graphical spread. Advance knowledge of an RVF, dengue, or chikungunya outbreak in their endemic areas might be used to prevent globalization of the disease by assessing favorable conditions in other parts of the world where suitable mosquito vectors, potential domestic animal hosts, and likely habitats for disease exist.

Knowledge of vector-borne disease activity in endemic areas can be used to trigger monitor- ing of trade, and movement of people and mosquitoes on aircraft between sites of disease outbreaks and other places in the world where introduction might occur. For example, early planning and active monitoring of ships and contain- ers arriving from endemic ports and dispersed into the wide network of inland. The figure is based on data from the U. Bureau of Trans- portation Statistics. Early detection of RVF in human or mosquito hosts could provide early warning in the United States or other nonendemic regions or countries before ecological conditions become optimal for elevated mosquito populations, thus permitting targeted implementation of mosquito control, animal quarantine, and vaccine strategies in time to reduce or prevent animal and human diseases Linthicum et al.

Additionally, the RVF risk mapping system in operation in Africa could be adapted for use in the United States and neighbor- ing countries. Conclusions Understanding the ecology of vector-borne viral disease transmission is criti- cal and can provide linkages between the environment, including climate, and mosquito densities. These linkages can be evaluated with spatial and temporal. Patz, M. Olson18 University of Wisconsin The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid s could already be causing annually over , deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years DALY , mainly in developing countries.

The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution- related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration.

Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, which are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes climate and land-use change , more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environ- ment, sociology and economics, are required.

In the past half-century, global mean temperature has risen by 0. The rate of change in climate is faster now than in any period in the last 1, years. Copyright Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, This article was originally published in Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology Extremes of the hydrological cycle e. In the U. The extreme heat wave that hit much of Europe in is estimated to have killed up to 45, people in just 2 weeks Walker, ; Kosatsky, The results of the relevant studies conducted so far indicate a clear vulnerability to heat in the relatively cool, temperate regions, and tropical regions may show similar sensitivity as location-specific temperatures rise.

In addition, the loss of trees in urban areas diminishes the cooling effect of evapotranspiration. During heat waves, when stagnant atmospheric conditions may persist, air pollution often compounds the effects of the elevated air temperatures Frumkin, Urban areas may therefore suffer from both global and localized warming.

Severe Storms and Rise in Sea Level Floods, droughts and extreme storms have claimed millions of lives during the recent past, and have adversely affected the lives of many more people. On average, disasters killed , people world-wide each year between and Africa suffers the highest rate of disaster-related deaths, even though 80 percent of the people affected by natural disasters are in Asia Loretti and Tegegn, Disaster-related mental disorders, such as post-traumatic-stress disorder PTSD , may substantially affect population well-being, depending upon the unexpectedness of the impact, the intensity of the experience, the degree of personal and community disruption, and the long-term exposure to the visual signs of the disaster.

Hurricanes only form in regions where sea surface temperatures exceed. Records indicate that sea-surface temperatures have steadily increased over the last years, and more sharply over the last 35 years. The highest mean sea-surface temperatures ever recorded occurred between and Trenberth, During the first half of this period, there was a doubling in the overall hurricane activity in the North Atlantic and a five-fold increase in such activity in the Caribbean Goldenberg et al.

The North Atlantic Oscillation NAO was in its warm phase at this time, making it difficult to attribute the extra hurricanes to the long-term trends in warming. Sea-surface temperature is, however, correlated with hurricane intensity, and the frequency of higher-category storms has increased in many other parts of the world Figure For the plot, the power dissipation indices PDI for the Atlantic Ocean and Western Pacific were adjusted by multiplying them by a factor of 5.

The PDI has nearly An individual line cannot be selected and doubled over the past 30 years. Reproduced from a figure created by Emanuel , with changed. We could redraw the graph If sea levels rose by 1. This figure is adapted from one produced by the United Nations Environ- ment Programme Patz, and is reprinted here with the permission of John Wiley and Sons.

Rise in sea level Warmer oceans also cause sea levels to increase, primarily as the result of the thermal expansion of salt water. Rising sea levels will result in the salination of coastal freshwater aquifers and the disruption of stormwater drainage and sewage disposal. Droughts That droughts cause famines is well recognized.

Droughts and other climate extremes not only have direct impacts on food crops but can also indirectly influence food supply by altering the ecology of plant pathogens. While projections of the effect of climate change on global food-crop production appear to be broadly neutral, such change will probably exacerbate regional inequalities in the food supply Parry et al.

As there is a breakdown in sanitation as water resources become depleted, droughts can also increase the incidence of diarrhoea and diseases, such as scabies, conjunctivitis and trachoma, associated with poor hygiene Patz and Kovats, In their recent study, Bell et al. Pollen levels in the air may also increase with global warming, as higher lev- els of CO2 promote growth and reproduction by many plants. Ziska et al. Finally, if the frequency of flooding increases, significant exposure to moulds may also pose respiratory health risks during the post-flood clean-ups Patz et al.

Infectious Diseases Water- and Food-Borne Diseases Water shortages, as mentioned above, contribute to diarrhoeal disease through poor hygiene, especially in poor countries. On the other hand, flooding can con- taminate drinking water with run-off from sewage lines, containment lagoons such as at animal-feeding operations , or conventional non-point-source pol- lution from across watersheds. The parasites in the genus Cryptosporidium are usually associated with domestic livestock but can contaminate water intended for human consumption, especially during periods of heavy precipitation.

In a cryptosporidiosis out- break in Milwaukee, which killed more than 50 people and potentially exposed over , more to Cryptosporidium, coincided with unusually heavy spring rains and run-off from melting snow Mac Kenzie et al. A review of outbreaks of any water-borne disease in the U. Certain food-borne diseases are also affected by fluctuations in temperature. The frequency and global distribution of toxic algal incidents and the incidence of human intoxication from algal sources appear to be increasing Van Dolah, Vibrio species also proliferate in warm marine waters.

Zooplankton that feed on algae can serve as reservoirs for Vibrio cholerae and other enteric pathogens of humans. In Bangladesh, cholera follows the seasonal increase in sea-surface temperatures that can enhance plankton blooms Colwell, When they considered these factors together, Koelle et al. Vector-Borne Diseases As the human pathogens transmitted indirectly by insect or rodent vectors spend considerable time outside of their vertebrate hosts, they may easily be affected by environmental conditions.

The range of suitable climatic conditions within which each vector-borne pathogen and its vector can survive and repro- duce is limited. The incubation time of a vector-borne infective agent within its vector is typically very sensitive to changes in temperature and humidity Gubler et al. Table shows some examples of temperature thresholds. Malaria Between , and 2. NYD, Not yet determined. Malaria is an extremely climate-sensitive tropical disease, making the assessment of the potential change in malarial risk, caused by past or projected global warming, one of the most important topics in the field of climate change and health Patz et al.

The incidence of malaria varies seasonally in highly endemic areas, and malaria transmission has been associated with tem- perature anomalies in some African highlands Zhou et al. In the Punjab region of India, excessive monsoon rainfall and the resultant high humidity have been recognized for years as major factors in the occurrence of malaria epidem- ics. In Botswana, Thomson et al. In areas where human malaria is endemic, this effect usually precludes the transmission of malarial parasites at high altitudes, partly because the parasites cannot produce sporozoites in mosquitoes living at low tempera- tures.

The minimum temperatures for the sporogony of Plasmodium falciparum and P. As seen in the African highlands Bodker et al. Global warming is likely to result in an increase in the altitudes at which no malaria transmission occurs. In Africa, Tanser et al. Hav- ing compared climate suitability maps for malaria in the topographically diverse country of Zimbabwe, Ebi et al. The highland areas of Africa that are not currently endemic for malaria but are, as the result of global warming, at high risk of becoming areas where transmission occurs are shown in Figure Pascual et al.

There are well-recognized non-linear and threshold responses of malaria to the effect of regional temperature changes. In the African highlands, where mosquito populations are relatively small compared with those in lowland areas Minakawa et al. Malaria and local effects on climate from land-use change Changing land- scapes can significantly affect local climate more acutely than long-term global warming.

Land-cover change, for example, can influence the micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off Foley et al.

In Kenya, Afrane et al. As a result, the gonotrophic cycle of female Anopheles gambiae s. Similar findings have been documented in. As air temperatures rise, EIP shortens and so infected mosquitoes become infectious sooner. Uganda, where temperatures in communities bordering cultivated fields have been found higher than those in communities adjacent to natural wetlands, and the number of An.

In Kenya, mosquito breeding sites in farmland have been found to be relatively warm and this warmth speeds up the development of the immature insects Munga et al. Increased canopy cover in western Kenya is negatively associated with the presence of larval An. In artificial pools, survivorship of the larvae of An. These areas, which are at altitudes of. Reproduced, from a figure in an article by Patz and Lindsay , with the permission of Elsevier. In short, deforestation and cultivation of natural swamps in the African highlands creates conditions favourable for the survival of An.

Deforestation has also affected malaria in other regions, such as the Amazon basin Guerra et al. Vittor et al. Human activities have the capacity to shift the biodiversity of local ecosys-. This graph was produced by Afrane et al. The direction of the trend depends heavily on the Anopheles species present and on local condi- tions Guerra et al. The effects of changing land-use patterns on the regulation of malaria or other infectious disease across a large area are species and site-specific, and therefore cannot be generalised.

Similar to the extrinsic incubation periods of malarial parasites Figure , the rate of replication of dengue virus in Ae. Biological models have been developed to explore the influence of projected temperature change on the incidence of dengue fever. These models indicate that, given viral introduction into a susceptible human population, relatively small increases in temperature could significantly increase the potential for epidemics of dengue Patz et al. In addition, for rela- tively small countries with presumably some climate uniformity, a climate-based dengue model has been developed that strongly correlates with the inter-annual variability seen in the incidence of dengue reported at the national level Figure ; Hopp and Foley, In Florida, the appearance of SLEV in sentinel chicken flocks is preceded by a wet period followed by drought Shaman et al.

It has been suggested that spring drought forces the mosquito vector, Culex nigripalpus, to converge with immature and adult wild birds in restrictive, densely vegetated, hammock habitats. This forced interaction of mosquito vectors and avian hosts then creates an ideal setting for rapid transmission and amplifica- tion of SLEV. Once the drought ends and water sources are restored, the infected vectors and hosts disperse and transmit SLEV to a much broader geographical area Shaman et al.

Reisen et al. It seems likely that, during the epidemic summers of in the U. Rodent-Borne Diseases Hantavirus is transmitted to humans largely by exposure to infectious rodent excreta, and may then cause serious disease, with a high level of mortality. In the emergence of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the southwestern U. Extreme flooding or hurricanes can lead to outbreaks of leptospirosis.

In , an epidemic of this disease occurred in Nicaragua after heavy flooding, and a major risk factor for the disease was found to be walking through the flood waters Trevejo et al. In Honduras,up with the original tic marks. These graphs are adapted from those ofout theversion ismake new ones. Conservative assumptions were made about climate-health relationships e. Conclusions The health outcomes from climate change are diverse and occur via multiple pathways of exposure. Whereas some disease resurgence has been attributed to recent warming trends, some of the long-term and complex problems posed by climate change may not be readily discernible from other causal factors.

Accord- ingly, expanded efforts are required in both classical and future-scenario-based risk assessment, to anticipate these problems. In addition, the many health impacts of climate change must be examined in the context of many other environmental and behavioral determinants of disease. Increased disease surveillance, integrated modelling, and the use of geographically-based data systems will enable more anticipatory measures by the public-health and medical communities. There are clear ethical challenges. The regions with the greatest burden of climate-sensitive diseases are often the regions with the lowest capacity to adapt to the new risks.

Many of the regions most vulnerable to climate change are also those least responsible for causing the problem. Health is just one of the many sectors expected to be affected by climate. The outcomes considered cardiovascular diseases, diarrhoea, malaria, inland and coastal flooding, and malnutrition form only a partial list of the potential health outcomes, and there are significant uncertainties in all of the underlying models. The results should therefore be considered as conservative and approximate estimates of the health burden of climate change.

Reproduced from a figure created, using data from McMichael et al. It represents just a part of the interconnected context in which decision makers must implement strategies to prevent or reduce the adverse effects of such change. Uejio, M. University of Wisconsin Introduction Global climate change is expected to have broad health impacts.

These could occur through various exposure pathways, such as the frequency or intensity of extreme heat waves, floods, and droughts. Warmer air temperatures could also influence local and regional air pollutants and aeroallergens. Less direct health impacts may result from climate-related alteration of ecosystems or water and food supplies, which in turn could affect infectious disease incidence and nutri- tional status.

Finally, sea level rise could potentially lead to massive population displacement and economic disruption. Positive effects may include fewer winter- related deaths in some regions. Changes in temperature, humidity, rainfall, and sea level rise could all affect the incidence of infectious diseases. Mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas are cold-blooded and thus sensitive to subtle temperature and humidity changes.

But vector-borne diseases are also dependent on many other interacting factors. Although there has been a resurgence of infectious diseases in recent years, it is unclear that climate change has played a significant role. Other factors such as the movement of human and animal populations, the breakdown in public health infrastructure, changes in land use, and the emergence of drug resistance have been contributory. The transmission of infectious diseases is strongly influenced by tempera- ture, humidity, and rainfall see Box The distribution and seasonality of important infectious diseases are likely to be affected by climate change.

Diseases transmitted by insect or rodent vectors have life cycles where much time is spent outside the human host, and therefore are more influenced by ambient conditions. There is a limited range of climatic conditions within which each such infective or vector species can survive and reproduce. Phone: ; Fax: ; E-mail: patz wisc. Environmentally mediated mechanisms explaining vector and host dynamics focus on nonlinear changes to time before an infectious mos- quito can retransmit a virus or extrinsic incubation period EIP , vector popula- tion explosions, or changing host-seeking behavior Jupp et al.

For a full discussion of the topic, refer to Patz and Olson earlier in this chapter. Next, we provide an update on the two most prevalent vector-borne diseases in North America: Lyme disease and West Nile virus. Lyme Disease Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, ehrlichiosis, and tick-borne encephalitis are the most common vector-borne diseases in temperate zones in the northern hemisphere. Climate affects tick habitat, host and reservoir species, the interval between blood meals, and pathogen transmission. Lyme disease is the most prevalent tick-borne disease in North America for which there is new evidence of an association with temperature Ogden et al.

The northern boundary of tick-borne Lyme disease is limited by cold tem- perature effects on the tick, Ixodes scapularis. Linking to future projections of climate via global climate models GCMs , the northern range limit for this tick could shift north by km by the s, and 1, km by the s. The summer adult WNV vector Culex spp. Optimal temperatures increase the rates of juvenile mosquito maturation, adult females biting, virus replication decreases the extrinsic incubation period , and the total amount of virus transmitted Madder et al.

Changes in weather and climate that can affect transmission of vector-borne diseases include temperature, rainfall, wind, and sea level rise. Rodent-borne pathogens can be affected indirectly by ecological determinants of food sources affecting rodent population size. Some vectors have higher survival at higher latitudes and altitude with higher temperatures.

Changes in the susceptibility of vectors to some pathogens e. Changes in the rate of vector population growth. Changes in feeding rate and host contact which may alter the survival rate. Changes in the seasonality of populations. Pathogen Decreased extrinsic incubation period of pathogen in vector at higher temperatures. Changes in the transmission season. Changes in distribution. Decreased viral replication. Examples of Effects of Changes in Precipitation on Selected Vector-Borne Pathogens Vector Increased rain may increase larval habitat and vector population size by creating a new habitat.

Low rainfall can create habitat by causing rivers to dry into pools dry season malaria. Decreased rain can increase container-breeding mosquitoes by forcing increased water storage. Epic rainfall events can synchronize vector host-seeking and virus transmission. Increased humidity increases vector survival; decreased humidity decreases vec- tor survival. Pathogen Few direct effects but some data on humidity effects on malarial parasite develop- ment in the anopheline mosquito host.

Vertebrate host Increased rain can increase vegetation, food availability, and population size. Increased rain can also cause flooding and decrease population size but increase contact with humans. Decreased rain can eliminate food and force rodents into housing areas, increas- ing human contact, but it can also decrease population size. Increased sea level Alter estuary flow and change existing salt marshes and associated mosquito species, decreasing or eliminating selected mosquito breeding sites e.

Mild winter, spring, and warmer early summer season conditions foster enhanced vector survival and replication Takeda et al. WNV vector abundance in mid-latitude locations generally increases directly with moisture variables such as precipitation or river run-off levels over the pre- ceding month Wegbreit and Reisen, ; Degaetano, Mosquitoes are r-strategists20 with a competitive ecological advantage to preferentially reproduce in novel habitats created or activated by excessive precipitation.

The wettest spring and summer in years was significantly associated with increased WNV vectors abundance in the central United States Vandyk and Rowley, Absolute and relative departures from summer long-term average tempera- ture and precipitation conditions are hypothesized to be similarly important WNV transmission and epidemic drivers. High summer temperature and positive tem- perature anomalies have been observed in South Africa, Russia, and the United States McIntosh et al.

Drought-like conditions or below-average summer or spring precipi- tation are common threads of Romanian, Russian, and French WNV outbreaks Despommier, ; Han et al. Abnormal or suit- able moisture conditions conversely influence disease transmission in climatically sensitive South Africa. Extreme seasonal precipitation, subsequent breeding site creation, and normally hot temperatures coupled with existing irrigation and land use practices fueled two widespread South African epidemics McIntosh et al.

In the neighboring semiarid region, summer season average temperatures 1. Human activities such as degraded housing infrastructure, which spawned abnormal vector population levels, also influence WNV transmission dynamics Han et al. Efficient transmission of the New York WNV strain is greatly reduced at low average temperatures compared to African isolates Cornel et al. The efficiency of WNV transmission from an infected Cx. K-strategists conversely develop slowly and invest more re- sources in a larger body size and a small number of progeny MacArthur and Wilson, This period from laboratory experiments.

Reprinted replaced the "fuzzy" type. We have previously with permission from the Entomological Society of America. WNV transmission and epidemic genesis may therefore be more temperature limited in higher latitude locations. Current temperature information drives the spatial explicit model, which has moderate but variable levels of over- and underpredic- tion Zou et al.

Land use and land cover metrics contain interrelated information on bio- physical conditions and vector and host community assemblages that influence WNV transmission. Predominately white, moderately high income, suburban areas with housing built from to and moderate vegetation experienced as high as 3 to 8 times the WNV risk as the safest land use classification in two WNV epicenter cities Ruiz et al. Na- tional epicenters with relatively high numbers of recorded human cases are encapsulated by a circle.

The inserted table references the extrinsic incubation period and the length of the Cx. Reprinted with permission from the Entomological Society of America. New type superimposed Fixed WNV vector infection prevalence tended to be lower in wetlands with greater community avian diversity than forest, shrub, or developed study sites Ezenwa et al. Conclusions Climate change may affect the distribution and transmission intensity of a number of infectious diseases. Many of the linkages are complex and a range of other social, behavioral, and environmental factors also affect the health outcomes in question.

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Panella, B. Biggerstaff, B. Miller, and N. Differential virulence of West Nile strains for American crows. Emerging Infectious Diseases 10 12 Brownstein, J. Holford, and D. A climate-based model predicts the spatial dis- tribution of Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives 9 Bushland, R. Lindquist, and E. Eradication of screw-worms through release of sterilized males.

Busvine, J. Current problems in the control of mosquitoes. Buth, J. Brust, and R. Development time, oviposition activity and onset of diapause in Culex tarsalis, Culex restuans and Culiseta inornata in southern Manitoba. Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association 6 1 Campbell, G. Marfin, R. Lanciotti, and D. West Nile virus. Lancet Infec- tious Diseases 2 9 Carey, D. Causey, S. Reddy, and A. Dengue viruses from febrile patients in Nigeria, Lancet 1 Fatal yellow fever in a traveler returning from Venezuela, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 49 14 As they were ascending into the skies over Washington, they were briefed on the situation.

Some idiot in a small slow-moving plane had just taken off from an airfield in Stafford, Virginia. The guy was at three thousand feet and doing eighty-six knots, almost a hundred miles an hour. He had flown briefly to the south, then turned northeast and crossed into the outer zone and was not responding to air traffic controllers at Dulles. There are two air defense zones around the nation's capital, an inner and an outer zone. The outer zone has a ragged, roughly circular boundary that extends thirty to fifty miles outward from the Washington Monument.

To enter the ADIZ a pilot has to identify himself, must have an operating transponder that broadcasts a signal identifying his aircraft, and must remain in continuous two-way communication with FAA controllers. The second zone, the inner zone, is the no-fly zone.

The no-fly zone is a perfect circle extending out sixteen miles from the Washington Monument. The only aircraft allowed to enter this area aside from commercial traffic going in and out of Reagan National Airport have to be specially cleared. The fool in question hadn't identified himself, his transponder was either malfunctioning or disabled, and he wasn't responding to queries from FAA controllers.

He was doing everything wrong. When the unidentified aircraft was two miles inside the ADIZ, thirty-three miles and approximately twenty minutes from all the government buildings in D. Capitol Police were alerted and told to be prepared to evacuate the White House, the Capitol, and the Supreme Court; and men in secret locations throughout Washington who are qualified to fire surface-to-air missiles were notified and told to stand by. These four people were paged because they had been delegated the authority by the president of the United States to shoot down a plane entering the no-fly zone.

Dalton was fairly certain, however, that it wouldn't come to that; it never had in the past.


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He expected that within the next two minutes the dummy from Stafford would be on his radio saying, "Oh, shit, sorry," about sixteen times and then get headed in the right direction, and Dalton would be ordered back to Andrews before he could have any fun. But these incidents, pilots breaching the ADIZ, occurred two or three times a week, and once Dalton had been on duty when it happened three times in one day. These muttonheads who couldn't read a map or a compass, who had their radios turned off or set to the wrong frequency, would blunder into the ADIZ and then have the livin' shit scared out of 'em when two Fs went roaring past them at six hundred miles an hour.

Hawk Flight. Bogey still not responding. Snap vector three- twenty for thirty. Intercept and ID. Noses cold. Huntress was the call sign for the colonel commanding the Northeastern Air Defense Sector. He had tactical command of the Fs. Snap vector for 30 meant the bogey was on a bearing of degrees and 30 miles from the Hawk Flight's position. Noses cold meant they were to approach with their weapons systems unarmed — which was a damn good thing for the bogey. Dalton could see the bogey on his radar, and a minute later he could make out a dot in the sky that had to be it. He and Fields headed directly at the dot, and when they were half a mile away, and the bogey was clearly visible — and they were visible to it — Dalton split to the right and Fields to the left, and they blasted past the plane, coming within a hundred yards of its wingtips.

Dalton looked over his shoulder and saw the bogey wobble in the jet wash caused by the Fs, and he figured that whoever was flying that baby was sitting there right now in a puddle of his own piss. Dalton and Fields made tight loops in the sky and came in behind the plane, slowing down to match its speed. Roger that. This is the Air National Guard. You are approaching the no-fly zone.

Cessna Respond or you will be fired upon. You are entering the no-fly zone. It was possible, of course, that the Cessna's radio wasn't working or that the pilot was unconscious and the plane was flying itself. That had happened before, though not this close to the capital. While his wingman stayed behind the Cessna, Dalton pulled up next to it, the tip of his starboard wing less than fifty feet from the other plane. He waved his right hand at the pilot, signaling for him to get the hell out of the air and down on the ground, but the Cessna pilot, the damn guy, was staring straight ahead, not even looking over at Dalton's jet.

He looked like he was in a trance. Dalton and his wingman shot ahead of the Cessna and made tight turns in the sky to come back at it. This was the sort of maneuver they practiced a dozen times a month. Each pilot fired two flares. The flares missed the Cessna, but not by much, the closest one coming within thirty feet of the Cessna's cockpit. There was no way the Cessna pilot didn't see those flares — or the Fs coming directly at him once again. Dalton shot past the Cessna again, turned, and pulled up alongside it a second time.

He waggled his wings and waved an arm at the pilot. No response. The bastard just sat there like he was made of stone. Dalton reached out to — aw, shit! The Cessna had assumed a downward angle. It was going to cut right across one of the approaches to Reagan National. Beyond the airport, across the Potomac, Dalton could see the White House. This son of a bitch was headed directly at the White House — and the Cessna was now less than three minutes away from it.

Dalton wasn't concerned about his F or the Cessna colliding with commercial airplanes going in and out of Reagan National. He knew that by now every plane within a hundred miles either was on the ground or had been diverted away from D. Dalton didn't know if the president was in town, but if he was, two big Secret Service guys had him by the arms and were running him to the bunker, the president's feet not even hitting the ground. The Cessna was now four miles — less than two and a half minutes — from the White House.

Dalton spoke into his radio. Cessna not responding. I repeat. Cessna ignoring all attempts at contact. He also knew he didn't have to tell anybody where the guy in the Cessna was headed. There was no immediate response from Huntress. Oh, shit! Dalton thought. Please, God, don't let somebody's goddamn radio go out now. Then his radio squawked.

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Hawk One. Bogey declared hostile. Arm hot. You are cleared to fire. Cleared to fire. Now Dalton understood the pause. The word had gone up and back down the chain of command. One of those four men who had the authority to give that order had just given it. Dalton knew this was his mission.

This was the reason they'd spent all those years and all that money training him. This was the reason he was flying an F Falcon. But he had never really expected to have to execute the command he'd just been given. And then Lieutenant Colonel Peter Dalton did what he'd been trained to do. He reached down and toggled the master arm switch in the cockpit to ON, slowed down to increase the distance between him and the smaller plane, and just as the Cessna was crossing over the Potomac River — less than two miles from the White House — he fired.

Ordnance and armament used to protect the capital from aerial assault are classified. But whatever Dalton fired, it struck the Cessna and a ball of flame fifty yards in diameter bloomed in the sky over the Potomac. Pieces seemed to rain down onto the river for a solid minute after the Cessna had been obliterated. Charlie Logan lived on the fifth floor of an ancient apartment building in Flushing, not too far from Shea Stadium. It was a crummy, stinky place, the elevator broken, the stairway barely lit, the rug on the steps so dirty and worn that it was impossible to tell what color it had originally been.

They found Charlie's apartment, and Vince took a snub-nosed. Oh, shit, Danny thought. Vince used the butt of the. He waited a minute and then slammed the gun butt three times against the wooden door, the sound echoing down the hallway. Danny figured whoever was in the apartment across the hall from Charlie had to have heard the noise. But fuckin' Vince, he didn't think about things like that. He didn't care about things like that. Vince Merlino didn't look like a tough guy. He was five-eight, wiry, not heavily muscled.

At forty-five his hair was getting thin right on the top, like he was going to have a little skin circle up there in a couple of years. Yeah, if you saw Vince from the back you wouldn't be scared at all, a half-pint guy in a cheap leather coat and jeans and high-top Nike knockoffs.

But from the front, he'd give you pause. His face looked like it didn't know what a smile was, lips so thin they practically weren't there at all, but it was his eyes that got you. He had these flat don't-give-a-fuck eyes, eyes that said he'd go off on you no matter how big you were. Vince hit the door again, practically splintering the wood. Maybe he's not home. He raised the. Charlie Logan was a fat guy, six-foot-four, two hundred and eighty pounds. Maybe it was because of Charlie's size that Mr. B had told Danny to go with Vince. Danny didn't normally do this sort of stuff, but he'd been hanging around Mr.

B's office when Vince said he was going to see Charlie, and that's when Mr. B had told him to go too.

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Danny had said he didn't think Vince needed any help — it wasn't like Charlie was gonna wrestle with him or something — but Mr.